Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Arena da Baixada
Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 23:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.88
Draw
3.49
Away Win
2.47
Match Report
Full Time
0 – 2
Match Events ?
Atletico Paranaense
Palmeiras
6'
⚽ Maurício Magalhães Prado (José Manuel López)
Gilberto 🟨
9'
10'
⚽ Joaquín Piquerez
22'
🟨 Andreas Pereira
35'
🟨 Joaquín Piquerez
43'
🟥 Andreas Pereira
Leonardo Caetano Silva 🟨
57'
Match Statistics ?
64%
Ball Possession
36%
24
Total Shots
6
6
Shots on Goal
3
16
Corner Kicks
1
11
Fouls
8
2
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
1
2
Offsides
0
1
Goalkeeper Saves
6
Starting Lineups
Atletico Paranaense (3-4-2-1)
Mycael
Arthur Dias
J. Aguirre
Luiz Gustavo
Gilberto
Jádson
Felipinho
S. Mendoza
Leozinho
João Cruz
K. Viveros
Palmeiras (3-4-2-1)
Carlos Miguel
Bruno Fuchs
Murilo
A. Barboza
Khellven
Lucas Evangelista
Andreas Pereira
J. Piquerez
J. López
Maurício
R. Sosa
Player Ratings ?
Atletico Paranaense
Arthur DiasD7.2
B. ZapelliM7.0
GilbertoM6.8
Palmeiras
J. PiquerezM7.8
MaurícioM7.8
Carlos MiguelG7.6
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Atletico Paranaense edge attack, Palmeiras edge recent form, defence and head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Palmeiras slightly stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Atletico Paranaense slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Palmeiras stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Palmeiras stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Atletico Paranaense have remained unbeaten at home with two wins from their last five matches, while Palmeiras have recorded just one victory in their away outings over the same period. The hosts have scored in each of their last five home games but have only kept a clean sheet once during that run. Atletico Paranaense face four absences ahead of the match, whereas Palmeiras will be without two players from their squad. Palmeiras rate stronger on defence and head-to-head, with a slight advantage in form, while Atletico Paranaense hold a slight advantage in attack. Palmeiras won the most recent meeting 1-0 on 19 April 2026, having won 3 of the last 5 encounters to Atletico Paranaense's 1, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.0 goals per meeting. The market has remained broadly steady over the 5-day comparison window, with little change in either side's implied win probability. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift away from the draw
the draw's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a draw as less likely than it did 5 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion. Palmeiras remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Atletico Paranaense win
Latest market chance 33.1%
Steady
Market view unchanged
32.9% → 33.1%
+0.2 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 27.8%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
28.8% → 27.8%
−1.0 pts
Palmeiras win
Latest market chance 39.1%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
38.2% → 39.1%
+0.9 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Atletico Paranaense
Draw
Palmeiras
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 5 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Atletico ParanaensePalmeiras
Season Profile
This season
3rd
League Position
2nd
30
Games Played
30
1.77
Points/Game
2.10
1.63
Goals/Game
1.73
1.17
Conceded/Game
0.73
13.3
Shots/Game
15.5
5.0
Shots on Target
5.3
Home vs Away Context
Atletico Paranaense at home (17 matches) vs Palmeiras away (17 matches)
1.88
Points/Game
1.82
1.65
Goals/Game
1.53
1.06
Conceded/Game
0.71
53%
Win Rate
47%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Atletico Paranaense
Home form
W
D
D
W
D
Unbeaten in last 5 at home
2.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Palmeiras
Away form
W
L
D
D
D
1W 3D 1L in last 5 away
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Atletico Paranaense Wins
1
Draws
1
Palmeiras Wins
3
Avg Goals
2.0
Palmeiras1 – 0Atletico Paranaense
Atletico Paranaense0 – 2Palmeiras
Palmeiras0 – 2Atletico Paranaense
Palmeiras1 – 0Atletico Paranaense
Atletico Paranaense2 – 2Palmeiras
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Atletico Paranaensevs
Palmeiras
Recent Scoring Profile
2.10
Goals scored / game
1.80
1.60
Goals conceded / game
0.60
7/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
4/10
8/10
Both Teams Scored
4/10
1/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 5 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 46.3%→Latest 48.9%+2.6 pts
Notable move towards 3+ goals
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 52.0%→Latest 54.7%+2.7 pts
Notable move towards both teams scoring
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
2 of Atletico Paranaense's 10 matches and 2 of Palmeiras's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?