Atletico-MG vs Santos Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Arena MRV
Sun 11 Oct 2026 · 20:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.21
Draw
3.54
Away Win
3.34
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 1
Match Events ?
Atletico-MG
Santos
Alan Franco 🟨
45+2'
45+4'
🟨 Lucas Veríssimo
Thiago Borbas 🟨
66'
66'
🟨 Luan Peres
Igor Gomes 🟨
70'
85'
🟨 João Schmidt
88'
⚽ Gabriel Barbosa (Philippe Coutinho)
89'
🟨 Gabriel Barbosa
89'
🟨 Willian Arão
Vitor Hugo Franchescoli de Souza (Maycon de Andrade Barberan) ⚽
90+1'
Thiago Borbas (Alan Minda) ⚽
90+7'
Match Statistics ?
58%
Ball Possession
42%
21
Total Shots
10
5
Shots on Goal
3
12
Corner Kicks
3
10
Fouls
12
3
Yellow Cards
5
0
Red Cards
0
1
Offsides
3
2
Goalkeeper Saves
4
Starting Lineups
Atletico-MG (4-2-3-1)
Gabriel Delfim
Natanael
Léo Duarte
Vitor Hugo
K. Pascini
A. Franco
Alexsander
Victor Hugo
K. Castaño
Igor Gomes
T. Borbas
Santos (4-2-3-1)
Diógenes
Rodinei
Lucas Veríssimo
Willian Arão
G. Escobar
Gustavo Henrique Pereira
C. Oliva
Gabriel Bontempo
B. Rollheiser
Everton
Gabriel Barbosa
Player Ratings ?
Atletico-MG
Vitor HugoD8.3
T. BorbasF8.2
NatanaelD7.4
Santos
Gabriel BarbosaF7.5
Philippe CoutinhoM7.0
DiógenesG6.9
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Atletico-MG edge defence, Santos edge recent form and head-to-head, attack is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Santos stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Closely matched
HomeAway
Defence
Atletico-MG slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Santos stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Santos arrive with an impressive away record of five wins from their last five outings, while Atletico-MG have secured four victories and one draw at home during the same recent run. Atletico-MG have found the net in all five of their home matches recently, yet they have managed to keep a clean sheet in just two of those same five encounters. Both squads carry significant injury concerns ahead of the clash, with Atletico-MG having four players out and one doubtful, while Santos have four unavailable but no doubts attached to their list. Santos rate stronger on form and head-to-head, while Atletico-MG hold a slight advantage in defence, while attack is closely matched. Santos won the most recent meeting 1-0 on 12 April 2026, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to Atletico-MG's 1, with 2 ending level; the fixture has averaged 1.4 goals per meeting. Over the 2-day comparison window, Atletico-MG's implied win probability has fallen by 2.8 percentage points, while Santos's implied win probability has risen by 2.4 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
5
Santos unbeaten run
15
Santos points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift away from Atletico-MG
Atletico-MG's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Atletico-MG win as less likely than it did 2 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Atletico-MG win
Latest market chance 44.2%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
47.0% → 44.2%
−2.8 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 27.9%
Steady
Market view unchanged
27.4% → 27.9%
+0.5 pts
Santos win
Latest market chance 28.0%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
25.6% → 28.0%
+2.4 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Atletico-MG
Draw
Santos
9 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 2 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Atletico-MGSantos
Season Profile
This season
7th
League Position
8th
29
Games Played
29
1.52
Points/Game
1.45
1.34
Goals/Game
1.55
1.17
Conceded/Game
1.48
13.8
Shots/Game
13.9
4.8
Shots on Target
4.3
Home vs Away Context
Atletico-MG at home (17 matches) vs Santos away (17 matches)
2.06
Points/Game
1.29
1.59
Goals/Game
1.59
1.06
Conceded/Game
1.65
59%
Win Rate
35%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Atletico-MG
Home form
W
W
W
D
W
Unbeaten in last 5 at home
2.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Santos
Away form
W
W
W
W
W
Won 5 straight away
2.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Atletico-MG Wins
1
Draws
2
Santos Wins
2
Avg Goals
1.4
Santos1 – 0Atletico-MG
Atletico-MG1 – 1Santos
Santos2 – 0Atletico-MG
Atletico-MG2 – 0Santos
Santos0 – 0Atletico-MG
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Atletico-MGvs
Santos
Recent Scoring Profile
1.60
Goals scored / game
1.80
1.00
Goals conceded / game
1.20
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
7/10
2/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 48.7%→Latest 51.3%+2.6 pts
Notable move towards 3+ goals
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 52.7%→Latest 55.2%+2.5 pts
Notable move towards both teams scoring
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
2 of Atletico-MG's 10 matches and 2 of Santos's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?