Atletico-MG vs Cruzeiro Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Arena MRV
Thu 29 Oct 2026 · 22:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.72
Draw
3.49
Away Win
2.63
Match Report
Full Time
0 – 1
Match Events ?
Atletico-MG
Cruzeiro
4'
⚽ Kaio Jorge (Keny Arroyo)
Natanael 🟨
24'
25'
🟨 Zé Lucas
42'
🟨 Matheus Pereira
69'
🟨 Matheus Henrique
83'
🟨 Jonathan Jesus
85'
🟨 William Furtado
Alan Minda 🟨
90+9'
Match Statistics ?
56%
Ball Possession
44%
17
Total Shots
17
2
Shots on Goal
6
7
Corner Kicks
2
14
Fouls
10
2
Yellow Cards
5
2
Offsides
1
5
Goalkeeper Saves
2
Starting Lineups
Atletico-MG (4-2-3-1)
Gabriel Delfim
Natanael
Vitão
Lyanco
Renan Lodi
Alan Franco
Kevin Castaño
Gustavo Scarpa
Victor Hugo
Igor Gomes
Reinier
Cruzeiro (4-2-3-1)
Otávio Costa
William Furtado
Jonathan Jesus
João Marcelo
Lucas Villalba
Lucas Romero
Zé Lucas
Keny Arroyo
Matheus Pereira
Gerson
Kaio Jorge
Player Ratings ?
Atletico-MG
Gabriel DelfimG7.9
Alan FrancoM7.5
Alan MindaF7.3
Cruzeiro
Jonathan JesusD7.9
William FurtadoD7.7
Lucas RomeroM7.5
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Atletico-MG edge defence and head-to-head, Cruzeiro edge recent form and attack, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Cruzeiro stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Cruzeiro stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Atletico-MG stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Atletico-MG stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Atletico-MG have enjoyed a perfect run at home with four wins and one draw in their last five outings, while Cruzeiro have recorded two victories but three defeats away from home over the same span. The hosts have found the net in all five of their recent home matches yet have kept just two clean sheets during that identical period. Atletico-MG face six confirmed absences with no doubts, whereas Cruzeiro carry two certain injuries alongside two players listed as doubtful for the fixture. Cruzeiro rate stronger on form and attack, while Atletico-MG rate stronger on defence and head-to-head. Atletico-MG won the most recent meeting 3-1 on 3 May 2026, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to Cruzeiro's 0, with 3 ending level; the fixture has averaged 1.8 goals per meeting. Over the 9-day comparison window, Atletico-MG's implied win probability has fallen by 1.2 percentage points, while Cruzeiro's implied win probability has risen by 1.7 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
4
Cruzeiro unbeaten run
13
Atletico-MG points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards Cruzeiro
Cruzeiro's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Cruzeiro win as more likely than it did 9 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Atletico-MG win
Latest market chance 36.0%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
38.9% → 36.0%
−2.9 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 27.6%
Steady
Market view unchanged
27.7% → 27.6%
−0.1 pts
Cruzeiro win
Latest market chance 36.4%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
33.4% → 36.4%
+3.0 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Atletico-MG
Draw
Cruzeiro
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 9 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Atletico-MGCruzeiro
Season Profile
This season
6th
League Position
5th
32
Games Played
32
1.56
Points/Game
1.69
1.38
Goals/Game
1.59
1.19
Conceded/Game
1.44
13.8
Shots/Game
15.2
4.8
Shots on Target
5.4
Home vs Away Context
Atletico-MG at home (17 matches) vs Cruzeiro away (17 matches)
2.06
Points/Game
1.53
1.59
Goals/Game
1.47
1.06
Conceded/Game
1.76
59%
Win Rate
47%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Atletico-MG
Home form
W
D
W
W
W
Won 3 straight at home
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Cruzeiro
Away form
L
L
W
L
W
Lost 3 of last 5 away
2.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Atletico-MG Wins
2
Draws
3
Cruzeiro Wins
0
Avg Goals
1.8
Cruzeiro1 – 3Atletico-MG
Atletico-MG1 – 1Cruzeiro
Cruzeiro0 – 0Atletico-MG
Cruzeiro0 – 0Atletico-MG
Atletico-MG3 – 0Cruzeiro
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Atletico-MGvs
Cruzeiro
Recent Scoring Profile
1.40
Goals scored / game
2.10
1.10
Goals conceded / game
1.50
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
8/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
8/10
2/10
Failed to Score
0/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 48.7%→Latest 52.5%+3.8 pts
Strong move towards 3+ goals
An earlier move in the opposite direction has partly reversed.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 53.6%→Latest 57.6%+4.0 pts
Strong move towards both teams scoring
An earlier move in the opposite direction has partly reversed.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
5 of Atletico-MG's 10 matches and 4 of Cruzeiro's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?