Atletico-MG vs Coritiba Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Arena MRV
Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 22:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.61
Draw
4.03
Away Win
5.74
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 0
Match Events ?
Atletico-MG
Coritiba
Igor Gomes (Natanael Moreira Milouski) ⚽
78'
90+4'
🟨 Bruno Melo
90+4'
🟨 Thiago Santos
Match Statistics ?
58%
Ball Possession
42%
22
Total Shots
13
10
Shots on Goal
3
10
Corner Kicks
5
16
Fouls
11
0
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
0
3
Offsides
1
3
Goalkeeper Saves
9
Starting Lineups
Atletico-MG (4-2-3-1)
Gabriel Delfim
Natanael
Léo Duarte
Vitor Hugo
K. Pascini
T. Pérez
Alexsander
A. Minda
Mamady Cisse
Igor Gomes
T. Borbas
Coritiba (4-2-3-1)
Pedro Luccas
F. Bustos
Tiago Cóser
Jacy
Bruno Melo
Thiago Santos
S. Gómez
Pedro Rocha
Josué
J. Lavega
Paulo Roberto
Player Ratings ?
Atletico-MG
Igor GomesM8.2
NatanaelD7.6
K. CastañoM7.5
Coritiba
Pedro LuccasG8.8
JacyD7.2
JosuéM7.2
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Atletico-MG
Atletico-MG rate stronger in recent form, attack and defence; Coritiba edge head-to-head, giving Atletico-MG a slight edge.
Leads 3 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Atletico-MG stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Atletico-MG stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Atletico-MG stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Coritiba stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Coritiba have recorded just one win from their last five away outings, while Atletico-MG boast a perfect home record with four victories in that same span. Atletico-MG have found the net in every one of their last five home matches but have only kept a single clean sheet during that period. Three Atletico-MG players are unavailable with two more doubtful, whereas Coritiba face the absence of just one squad member alongside one player in doubt. Atletico-MG rate stronger on form, attack and defence, while Coritiba rate stronger on head-to-head. Coritiba won the most recent meeting 2-0 on 19 April 2026, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to Atletico-MG's 2, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.6 goals per meeting. Over the 6-day comparison window, Atletico-MG's implied win probability has fallen by 3.1 percentage points, while Coritiba's implied win probability has risen by 2.5 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives Atletico-MG a slight edge.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
3
Atletico-MG losing run
3/5
One-goal H2H results
13
Atletico-MG points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift away from Atletico-MG
Atletico-MG's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Atletico-MG win as less likely than it did 6 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Atletico-MG win
Latest market chance 61.1%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
64.2% → 61.1%
−3.1 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 22.7%
Steady
Market view unchanged
22.0% → 22.7%
+0.7 pts
Coritiba win
Latest market chance 16.2%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
13.7% → 16.2%
+2.5 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Atletico-MG
Draw
Coritiba
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Atletico-MGCoritiba
Season Profile
This season
7th
League Position
11th
30
Games Played
30
1.57
Points/Game
1.30
1.37
Goals/Game
1.27
1.17
Conceded/Game
1.60
13.8
Shots/Game
11.4
4.8
Shots on Target
3.4
Home vs Away Context
Atletico-MG at home (17 matches) vs Coritiba away (17 matches)
2.06
Points/Game
1.12
1.59
Goals/Game
1.06
1.06
Conceded/Game
1.76
59%
Win Rate
29%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Atletico-MG
Home form
W
W
D
W
W
Unbeaten in last 5 at home
1.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Coritiba
Away form
D
D
W
L
L
1W 2D 2L in last 5 away
0.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
2/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Atletico-MG Wins
2
Draws
1
Coritiba Wins
2
Avg Goals
2.6
Coritiba2 – 0Atletico-MG
Atletico-MG1 – 2Coritiba
Coritiba1 – 2Atletico-MG
Coritiba0 – 1Atletico-MG
Atletico-MG2 – 2Coritiba
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Atletico-MGvs
Coritiba
Recent Scoring Profile
1.60
Goals scored / game
1.30
1.00
Goals conceded / game
2.10
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
7/10
2/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 5 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 51.1%→Latest 53.2%+2.1 pts
Notable move towards 3+ goals
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 47.3%→Latest 51.4%+4.1 pts
Strong move towards both teams scoring
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
3 of Atletico-MG's 10 matches and 2 of Coritiba's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?